[Post updated on April 06, 2020]
For the last few months, the entire world has been ravaged by a new coronavirus that is so contagious that there is no sign yet of how soon it can be brought under control. For the first time in recent human history, a pandemic has crossed all man-made physical and social barriers and is raising questions that we never thought we would really have to find answers to. Some questions that keep cropping up are – In light of the massive financial impact resulting from the world shutting down for a prolonged period of time, at what point would it be alright to accept that the economy must be given greater priority over saving human lives? How many deaths are “acceptable” under such extreme conditions?
The fact that such questions are even being asked publicly is a sign of how bad the situation is around the world. Under “normal” circumstances, just the thought of finding any number of deaths being “acceptable” would be horrendous. But these are not normal circumstances and healthcare professionals around the world are having to make impossible decisions about who to save and who to not every hour, every day, for weeks and months at a stretch. The sad reality is that while this happens, politicians in many countries are arriving (secretly or openly) at “acceptable death counts” based not just on the economic factors, but more on the consequences of their actions/choices on their own political futures. Most of the decision-making appears to be influenced by the potential political ramifications of actions taken (or not taken). And that is why the crisis has gone completely out of control in so many countries.
Japan may be looking at a very bleak future if the country’s leaders don’t step up to this challenge and take decisive action, without thinking about saving their own careers or protecting other vested interests. With the oldest population in the world, this country is more vulnerable than any other. Moreover, the media coverage in Japan of what’s going on elsewhere is so limited that the vast majority of Japanese residents are not even aware of the real magnitude of this crisis. While international news networks are continuously covering the ongoing chaos, Japanese news networks are barely publishing or broadcasting anything about it. That is probably contributing to how relatively relaxed the country appears to be at the moment. Till the formal announcement of the Olympics being postponed was made, the perception was that Japan was largely unaffected by the virus, and somehow, the country had managed to pull off something that virtually no other country could – not even the so-called developed ones. But since that announcement, things have changed very quickly, and suspiciously so. It does seem to be a very strange coincidence that the spike in cases started right after the Olympics announcement was made. All of a sudden, we saw many politicians and “experts” going public with how concerning it was that the cases in Japan are on the rise. People started talking about declaring a national emergency and enforcing “lock-downs”. The Governor of Tokyo called press conferences to request people to avoid going out of their houses unless absolutely necessary. She even went to the extent of “requesting” the public to avoid gathering at hanami parties during the traditional Sakura season… a request which went largely unheeded and we saw thousands of people converging at the famous Sakura viewing spots. During the same period, a local kick-boxing event attracted in excess of 6500 people, even though the authorities had requested the organizers to cancel the event. Trains in Tokyo remain crowded during peak hours. Kids continue to play in the parks. Bars, clubs and izakayas continue to be packed with revelling salarymen. “Social Distancing” is a concept not even remotely grasped in Japan. In short, there is very little acknowledgement of how high the risks are. If things continue this way, Japan can only blame itself if and when the “explosion” of infections happens. All the warning signs point to an impending crisis of mammoth proportions, but no cohesive strategy or planning is seen anywhere. It feels as if Japan is trying its best to wish away the troubles, but as we are seeing in Europe and Iran and even the US, this is not an issue that can be just wished away. Even the most stubborn and ill-informed world leaders have been forced to accept the harsh realities and make an effort to tackle it with more conviction. Time will tell how things pan out in Japan, but there is no doubt that the country is just not doing enough and there is no sense of urgency to prevent a complete disaster…
The true cost of human life lost at such a global scale can never be accurately calculated. The wider impact of this unprecedented crisis on human society will be known and understood much later… maybe several years later. My view is that this is one of those once in a millennium events that will change the world forever. Economic numbers and job losses will be overwhelmed by the unfathomable social turbulence that we are all hurtling towards. I am not entirely sure there is any full-proof way to stop it at this stage, but I am hopeful that once the worst phase of the infections is over, humanity will find in itself the desire, will and capability to put aside all differences and focus completely on rebuilding our social fabric, which by then will have been left in tatters by the virus we named “COVID-19”.
News broke this morning that PM Abe was about to declare a state of emergency to deal with the Coronavirus crisis in Japan. For the last few days, Tokyo has been consistently reporting more than 100 new cases a day and it has become quite clear that the polite “requests” to exercise social distancing, avoid leaving the house for non-essential reasons, work from home, cancel large events/gatherings, etc. have mostly fallen on deaf ears. Experts have been warning that if the matter is not taken more seriously, we could see an “overshoot” of cases that would completely overwhelm the healthcare infrastructure in big cities like Tokyo. Even Koike san, the Governor of Tokyo, has been quite vocal in her calls to exercise more restraint, but in vain. The emergency being declared won’t be a magic pill, as the powers available under Japanese laws are quite limited. However, it is expected to allow the Governors a little more freedom to enforce certain restrictions. Never before in Japan has such an emergency been enforced, so there is no precedent for us to talk about. The formal announcement is expected tomorrow and the emergency would take effect from April 8th. At this time, all we can do is wait and watch. We can only hope that everyone will acknowledge the gravity of the circumstances and do whatever is possible to slow down the spread of this virus. If that does not happen, then Japan may experience the same tragedy that has unfolded in countries like Italy, Iran, France, the United Kingdom and even the United States. I can only hope for the best…